Return of the inoperability

There has been unrest in the research community investigating the inoperability of an economic system under disaster situations. The inoperability input–output model (IIM), which is very popular in the risk management field, has become a center of argument, particularly from the input–output researchers, that IIM is a straightforward application of the standard Leontief input–output model. This paper revisits the concept of inoperability, rather than IIM, and proposes its new role in disaster impact analysis using a conventional tool, i.e. the RAS method, for illustrating how the inoperability of an economic system in the aftermath of disaster can be evaluated. The proposed framework is employed to examine the inoperability of industries resulting from the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The findings of the analysis reveal the usefulness of inoperability concept that can even incorporate resilience (gained operability) using the proposed framework of this paper.     

高端乡村旅游产业与生态环保基础设施协同发展研究——以天津蓟州区为例

在经济新常态下积极推动发展高端乡村旅游产业已经成为我国建设美丽乡村的重要着力点,与此同时"反生态"问题的不断显现已成为阻碍我国乡村旅游经济实现可持续发展的掣肘,因此,高端乡村旅游产业的发展模式向生态化转型势在必行。以天津市蓟州区乡村旅游景区的环保基础设施为研究对象,从环境情况、设施配备和从业人员3个方面确定了20个影响因素,通过向游客发放问卷进行满意度调查,从游客感知角度的基础上采用IPA模型分析游客对景区环保基础设施的重要性和满意度。结果表明,准则层及指标层感知均值都为游后感知实绩(满意度)<游前期望(重要性),在此基础上提出用冲突协同理论来指导蓟州区高端乡村旅游产业发展中的环境管理工作,实现高端乡村旅游产业与环保基础设施的协同发展,也能为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

基于改进Transformer模型的文本摘要生成方法

传统的文本摘要方法，如基于循环神经网络和Encoder-Decoder框架构建的摘要生成模型等，在生成文本摘要时存在并行能力不足或长期依赖的性能缺陷，以及文本摘要生成的准确率和流畅度的问题。对此，提出了一种动态词嵌入摘要生成方法。该方法基于改进的Transformer模型，在文本预处理阶段引入先验知识，将ELMo(Embeddings from Language Models)动态词向量作为训练文本的词表征，结合此词对应当句的文本句向量拼接生成输入文本矩阵，将文本矩阵输入到Encoder生成固定长度的文本向量表达，然后通过Decoder将此向量表达解码生成目标文本摘要。实验采用Rouge值作为摘要的评测指标，与其他方法进行的对比实验结果表明，所提方法所生成的文本摘要的准确率和流畅度更高。     

Does partnering with the World Bank shield investors from political risks in less developed countries?

This study explores whether partnering with the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) protects foreign investors from aggressive actions by host countries’ governments. Building on the obsolescing bargaining model, we theorize that host states fear that hostile actions towards IFC-supported investments will damage their relationships with the World Bank. Within this context IFC support deters host government aggression towards investments. We assess our argument using country-level panel data as well as interviews with a sample of high-level managers. Findings suggest that IFC-support helps to reduce host state aggression against investing firms.     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究*——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本，发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应，相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下，险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比，并提高资产周转率，从而降低两类代理成本；持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识，同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应*——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理，揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式；运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据，构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调；财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性，在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展；两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致，在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

中国数字经济空间关联网络及其影响因素分析

基于2013年和2020年29个省的数据，用因子模型测算各省数字经济发展水平，在此基础上使用修正引力模型构建数字经济空间关联网络，并深入分析此网络特征。结果表明：中国数字经济发展水平存在差异，东部地区高于中西部地区；中国数字经济空间关联网络密度不断增大；北京、山东、江苏一直是网络的重要输出省份，近年来西部地区在网络中的作用越来越明显；地理位置相邻、贸易开放度和产业结构对网络的形成有显著影响。     

草地确权对牧户草地转入的影响

确权政策的实施稳定了地权，保障了牧户的产权权益。基于内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟、鄂尔多斯市和乌兰察布市的调研数据，运用Tobit回归模型得出以下结论：确权对于牧户草地转入具有显著的抑制作用；户主特征中性别、年龄对于土地转入作用不显著，受教育程度具有显著的促进作用；家庭特征中家庭收入、家庭承包草场面积和牲畜存栏量对于草场转入具有显著的促进作用。     

The dark side of innovation: How new SKUs affect brand choice in the presence of consumer uncertainty and learning

New product activity is critical for sustained success of consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. However, the impact of new SKUs on the perceived quality, quality uncertainty and subsequent choice of the brand as a whole is, as of yet, not well understood. The authors study how new additions to the brand line shape consumers’ quality perceptions, and how this – next to the mere line length effect – influences their choice of brands over time. They do so in the setting of an emerging market (China), where new product activity is particularly pervasive. Using a unique scanner panel dataset of Chinese households over the period 2011–2014, they estimate a Bayesian learning model that accommodates varying quality, on two CPG categories, and for two types of new-product additions (new sensory SKUs vs. new non-sensory SKUs). They show that while adding new SKUs may lift the brand’s perceived quality level, it also makes consumers more uncertain about the quality of the brand – dampening their brand choice. This holds especially for light customers – an important part of the brand clientele. Managerial implications are discussed.     

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied.